Big Pairs in Texas Holdem part 2: QQ and JJ

QQ

• Winning percentage vs. a random hand 80%
• Winning percentage vs. a random top 40 hand 72%
• Winning percentage vs. 3 random top 40 hands 44%
• Big hand potential on flop: 11% to flop a set
• QQ will run into pocket Aces or Kings about 10% of the time in a 10-handed game
• The flop will contain an Ace or a King 31% of the time (11% of those times you will flop a set)

THE GOOD: The undisputed third best in Hold’ Em, pocket Queens represent the first Hold’ Em hand where it’s not an automatic re-raise for you pre-flop. That said you should typically play your Queens very fast, unless the player in question is the ultimate Locksmith, since you are likely a very heavy favorite against any hand a player will call a raise with.

THE BAD: Queen’s ‘good’ is also the hand’s ‘bad’. The problem with Queens is that the hands a typical Hold’ Em player three-bets AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQs is a bad range of hands for pocket Queens: Against that range Queens are a 48/52 underdog -against an even tighter range AA/KK/QQ/AK, Queens are 40/60 underdog.

THE UGLY: In addition to the aforementioned issue, an even larger issue you will face is the fact that the flop will contain an Ace or a King -and no Queen-20% of the time. That means that 1-in-5 flops will present you with a difficult decision where you already way behind, or could easily get moved off your hand.

JJ

• Winning percentage vs. a random hand 77%
• Winning percentage vs. a random top 40 hand 66%
• Winning percentage vs. 3 random top 40 hands 38%
• Big hand potential on flop: 11% to flop a set.
• The flop will contain an Ace, King or Queen 58% of the time (11% of those times you will flop a set)

THE GOOD: Jacks are right on the cusp of greatness: Think the Buffalo Bills that lost four straight Super Bowls and you have JJ in the Texas Holdem hierarchy of starting hands. Since you’ll like the flop about 50% of the time Jacks can be played very aggressively pre-flop, especially if you’re putting in the first raise.

THE BAD: Despite the fact you already have a strong made hand Jacks are very vulnerable to being out-drawn. In a game where a raise will not trim the field very much you’re almost better off playing your Jacks for set value if a player puts in a raise in front of you. Jacks present a  variety of problems when the pot has already been raised.

THE UGLY: The major problem with Jacks is when you are 3-bet, or 4-bet, by a fairly tight player; against this player’s range you are likely a sizeable underdog, and furthermore there will be an A/K/Q on the flop about 47% of the time. When the flop has a single over-card you still have a chance at taking it down with a continuation bet, however, when the flop has two-over-cards you’re in serious trouble.