Just How Big of an Edge Do You Have in Poker?

One of the most profound bits of poker advice I have ever read was written by Bill Chen in a forum post on the now defunct rec.gambling.poker. In his post Chen explains your edge in poker by using the coin flip example: Basically, Chen explains that a good player is essentially flipping a coin every hour with 6-to-5 odds.

Chen is implying that your edge is so small in poker -even when you are playing your absolute best, your A-game– that you must be prepared for variance at all times. If you’re not capable of dealing with the swings in poker, your edge will dry up to the point where you are now flipping that coin every hour as a 6-to-5 underdog!

While the subject matter is nothing earth shattering, the delivery is spot on. Chen was able to explain variance in a way that makes perfect sense to anyone. By using the coin flip you can see how small your edge is in poker, and how variance can really wreak some havoc on your short-term results -it’s not hard to imagine losing three, four, or more coin-flips in a row. And can decimate your bankroll if you fall off you’re A-game -It won’t take much of a change to your game to send you from a 6-to-5 favorite to a 6-to-5 underdog.

Additionally, the smaller your edge, the higher your variance will be, and therefore your margin for error diminishes as well. Taken together you can see how poker punishes new, and weak, players, leaving only the strongest and best players standing.

Think of it this way: When you start out, even as an educated poker player, you have very little edge over your opponents, say 11-to-10. With these odds your variance will be extremely high and you will fall off your A-game quite often: Which quickly turns you into a break-even or losing player. In order to be a winning player at this stage you need to have complete focus and have outstanding mental toughness, you simply have to be playing your best at all times.

As you gain experience your edge increases, thus dropping your variance and making it easier to stay on your A-game -Even if you’re not playing your best you could still be a favorite, dropping back to 11-to-10.

This is why when you are starting out as a new player you need to really focus on getting any small edge you can find: game selection, note-taking, rakeback, deposit bonuses, and so forth. But as a new player you may also want to stay away from very marginal situations in the game itself that will increase your variance, but can also send you off of your A-game very quickly. Remember, when you have only an 11-to-10 edge you don’t have to fall very far to become the underdog.