Online Poker Conspiracy Theories, Fact or Fiction

Not a single day goes by where the online poker forums do not come under bombardment by some new conspiracy theory, or just a new version of an old conspiracy. In this article I will explain three of the most popular conspiracy theories and look at the veracity of each claim.

Online poker conspiracy #1: The online poker sites use “house” players or poker bots.

Summary: The basic premise of the “house player/poker bot” accusation is that the poker sites employ either real players, or use poker bots, who have some type of built-in advantage over the other players: Knowledge of other players’ hole cards, knowledge of the upcoming cards, or something along those lines. These players/bots are then planted at tables to fleece the legitimate players.

Fact or Fiction: This is one of the most common allegations, and the reason so many players can make this assertion is because it is impossible to prove or disprove without the online poker sites agreeing to some form of full audit of their hand histories. So, the jury is completely out on this one; most Poker Pros and people in the industry discount this possibility, but there is no proof either way.

Verdict: Unknown

Online poker conspiracy #2: The online poker sites “juice” the flops to create more action.

Summary: People alleging “juiced” flops believe the sites tinker with the flop texture to insure that multiple players make strong hands. The theory is that if there is a lot of action the rake will be higher, which leads to more income for the online poker site.

Fact or Fiction: This is one of the easier conspiracies to debunk, since the flop cards are completely known -unlike hole cards which often remain hidden. Therefore, many players have been able to look at large samples of flops and have found that each card is just as likely to appear as any other, as well as the lack of “action flops”.

Verdict: Total Fiction

Online poker conspiracy #3: The online poker sites skew the odds to allow bad players to win more often than they should.

Summary: Players making this claim feel that the online poker sites reward bad play. They feel that the odds do not add up: Inside straights hit too often, under-pairs beat over-pairs too often, and so on. The theory is that by having bad plays rewarded ever so slightly more than they should be; bad players will keep their money longer -which leads to more players, which leads to more games, which leads to more rake.

Fact or Fiction: This is another area where many players have done a lot of research with large samples of hands, and have found nothing out of the ordinary. However, even a very slight skewing of the odds can achieve the objective outlined, and although this is another conspiracy that is roundly rejected by most players, it cannot be ruled out entirely without a full audit, since the information can be found in hidden hole cards.

Verdict: Most Likely Fiction