Poker Axiom #1: Never Go Broke With A Queen In Your Hand

You’ve probably heard a poker commentator reference this axiom on numerous occasions: Never go broke with a Queen in your hand: And now I’ll try to shed a little bit of light on precisely what they are talking about.

What they are referencing is the problem of domination, more specifically with domination and a deep stack. You see, when you are playing a No Limit Hold’ Em cash game -or even in the early of stages of a tournament-the typical will not be re-raising you without holding one of the upper echelon hands -AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK. Because of this, putting in a 3^rd raise with a hand like AQ or QQ is a recipe for disaster.

Obviously AQ is dominated by all but one of those hands (the lone exception being JJ), so having a hand like AK changes the landscape dramatically in your favor: You’re still dominated by AA and KK, but now you’re flipping against the other hands. And more importantly, with you holding an Ace and a King, the likelihood of your opponents holding AA or KK diminishes. Here are the specific odds:

AQ vs AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK = 28% win rate

AK vs AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK = 40.5% win rate

But even a powerhouse hand like QQ can fall victim to the domination issue. If we look at the different results by QQ, and then the next step up KK:

QQ vs AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK = 47% win rate

KK vs AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK = 62% win rate

And, if you were to eliminate the possibility of JJ from your opponent’s hand range the numbers are downright dreadful for QQ (dropping as low as AK against the same range), but only change 5% with regards to KK:

QQ vs AA, KK, QQ, AK = 40% win rate

AK vs AA, KK, QQ, AK = 39.5% win rate

KK vs AA, KK, QQ, AK =57% win rate

Basically, the axiom boils down to one important component, be careful about sticking your entire stack into the middle if you have a Queen in your hand. Of course you’d have to have a good read on your opponents tendencies, and the tighter they are in regards to 3-betting will determine if even a hand like QQ needs to be folded or warrants a flat-call: As opposed to a typical re-raise.

So, when you make a raise with a hand like AQ or QQ (or JJ for that matter) you need to be very cognizant of what your opponent’s range is when they 3-bet; especially if they view you as a solid player –which hopefully they do!