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Poker Notes

Poker mistakes that keep you from winning: Postdiction

Most people are familiar with the word prediction: You know Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, fortune-telling. On the other hand you have postdiction, and postdiction is not part of our everyday vernacular (in fact, my spellcheck doesn’t recognize it as a word and I hate nothing more than looking at the jagged red line!), even though it’s very prevalent in society.

Postdiction is when you take an event that already occurred and apply a hindsight bias to it. In sports this is known as being a Monday Morning Quarterback. You know, the infamous “How could he leave Pedro Martinez in for the 8th inning?!?!?!?!”

Poker players are one of the biggest culprits of using postdiction. Poker players often use it to justify a poor play they made, to keep the appearance of their skill intact. A player who thought he was drawing to 6 outs (which would have made the play an incorrect call) might realize when the hands are turned up that he actually had 10 outs (which would have made his call correct). This player can then use this new information to justify their call: “Well, I had 10 outs.” And most of the time the other player’s respect for you increases, since your read would have to be spot on to know this type of information!

Postdiction is a dangerous practice to get caught up in. Remember, poker is not about results; poker is about making the right decision with the information you have available. So, if you get wrapped up using postdiction to justify bad decisions you’ll have a hard time correcting leaks in your game.

Postdiction is the crutch of the longtime losing player. You know the person I am talking about: They know every aspect of the game, and have been playing for years, and they tell you how they are the most unlucky person on the planet. The truth is, these players are often guilty of postdiction, and their game has enough leaks to sink an aircraft carrier.

It’s very easy to play Monday Morning Quarterback, a lot easier than admitting you made a mistake! Just remember, in poker (and life) the easy way out is usually not your best option: It takes hard work and the ability to be honest with yourself to become a winning poker player.

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  • Posted in: Poker Strategy & Tips
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