Understanding Your Win Rate In Poker

How much can I make playing poker? This is one of the most prevalent questions players ask before they decide to take the plunge into a life of semi-pro or professional poker. Known as your win-rate, the answer to this question has no fewer than five variables:

• Your skill level
• The skill level of your opponents
• The type of game you play
• The limits you play
• The amount of the rake as well as other expenses

Despite all the variables your win-rate does have a cap: If you read the online poker forums, for No Limit Hold’ Em the agreed upon cap is 10BB/100 (10 big bets per 100 hands): In limit Hold’ Em the number is reduced to 4BB/100 (the difference is not as drastic as it first appears: A big bet is considered double the blind amount, so a $100 buy-in NLHE game has a big bet of $2 [$20 cap] and a $100 buy-in Limit Hold’ Em game has a $4 big bet amount [$16 cap]).

Here are the types of win-rates players can expect based on their overall knowledge of the game and ability (this includes game selection, avoiding tilt, and so on).

• An expert player can expect a win-rate = 10BB/100 for NL and 4BB/100 for Limit
• Good solid player can expect a win-rate = 7+BB/100 for NL and 2+BB/100 for Limit
• A new, but decent, player can expect a win-rate = 3-7BB/100 for NL and 1-2BB/100 for Limit

With these numbers in mind, I will now discuss how the five variables become applicable to your final win-rate numbers.

Your skill level - Your skill level is the prime factor in how much money you will earn at the poker tables, and is the basis for the maximum win-rates I described above. An Expert player makes almost zero mistakes: A good player will make a few minor mistakes: A new player will make numerous minor mistakes and an occasional large mistake.

Your opponent’s skill level - One of the keys to poker is to seek out bad players. Exercising good game selection is one way you can be certain you are one of the top players in the game, regardless of your own skill level.

The game you play - Players are able to sustain higher win-rates depending on the type of poker game they are playing in. Certain forms of poker are more skillful than others, and can therefore produce higher win-rates for good and expert players. Players are able to sustain higher win-rates in games like 5-Card-Stud, Limit Omaha 8, and most of the big-bet games (NLHE and PLO).

The stakes you play - As you progress up the poker food chain you’ll notice that the competition gets better, and your win-rate will thereby decrease. However, by playing higher stakes you will not need to sustain a huge win-rate in order to make a good profit. For example, even if you were beating $10/$20 Limit Hold’ Em for 2BB/100 ($40) you would be better off in a $50/$100 game you could only beat for .5BB/100 ($50).

The rake and expenses - this is the unknown variable, certain players will have a higher overhead than others. This is obviously dependent on the casino/online room your frequent, do you tip, your drive time, and other variables like food and such. All of these factors need to be considered when determining your final win-rate.