When to Give Up Small Edges in Poker: A Lesson in Risk to Reward

As you become more experienced in poker you will learn one important concept: Not all advantages are the same. A little talked about concept in poker is risk to reward, but it will play a vital role in your poker career.

Read any poker book or article and it will tell you, that you need to take a long-term approach to the game -which is inherently correct-and any time you have an edge, no matter how miniscule, you should jump on it. But what if that small edge, that will give you long-term profits, causes you ruin in the short-term? Well, this is exactly what risk to reward is.

I’ll use a very simple scenario to outline risk to reward:

Imagine you see a $1 bill on the other side of a one-way street: it’s a simple matter of crossing the road and picking up the bill and pocketing $1. The reward isn’t outstanding, but there is practically no risk. Now imagine you see $5,000 on the other side of a busy highway: The reward has increased substantially, but so has the risk.

Now imagine if a statistician is standing next to you in each example: he tells you that in scenario one you will pocket the $1 bill without incident 99.9% of the time -1 in 1,000 times something flukey will happen, like a sprained ankle. So, 999 times you earn $1 and one time you end up in the emergency room. In scenario two the statistician tells you that you will make it across the highway 30% of the time, you will be in the hospital 50% of the time, and dead 20% of the time.

Well, poker can be like both examples: you can play the percentages and wait for a solid advantage, or you can push every marginal situation in an effort to make the most money possible. However, the play-it-safe people tend to have less swings in their bankroll than the push every edge type of player. Of course, the play-it-safe people won’t win as much in the long-run as the people pushing every edge, but they are a lot more likely to make it to the long-run!

Players who should pull in the reigns, and not push every edge are the people who:

• Are playing on a short bankroll

When you have a smaller bankroll you have less wiggle room, and variance becomes more of a factor.

• Have problems with self control and tilt easily

Players who tilt easily can quickly go from having an edge in a game to being an underdog.

• Are new to the game and more likely to make mistakes

Players who lack experience tend to have trouble calculating the actual odds, and are more likely to botch the odds in marginal situations.