When you should start to feel desperate in a poker tournament

An interesting part of tournament play happens when you start to fall under 20 Big Blinds and have to start looking for spots to get all your chips in the middle. But a lot of players have trouble understanding why the 15 Big Blind threshold (or thereabouts) is the cutoff point for desperation when they still have 15 Big Blinds. In this article I’ll go over the three main factors that make 15 Big Blinds the defacto point where you need to start “making moves” in a poker tournament.

You Offer Your Opponents Better Odds to Call

Suppose you are at a five-handed table and the blinds are at 500/1,000 with a 200 chip ante: If you have 15 Big Blinds and move all-in a player in the Big Blind must call 14,000 to win 17,500 (about 1.2 to 1). On the other hand, if you wait until you have 8 Big Blinds your opponent is now calling 7,000 to win 10,500 (about 1.5 to 1).

When Doubling-Up Doesn’t Help

The most valuable reason that you should start getting your chips in the middle with a stack under 20 Big Blinds is that if you wait too long even a double-up won’t get you out of the danger zone. A lot of players will wait until they have 6-8 Big Blinds left and are basically forced to push at the first opportunity. Not only are they far more likely to be called since the dead-money in the pot (the blinds and antes) lays better odds to another player, but even when they do win they are still under 20 Big Blinds, sometimes under 15!

Eliminates Yet another Weapon in Your Arsenal

With 15 Big Blinds you have two weapons in your arsenal: You can open-shove AND you still have enough fold-equity to come over the top of a standard open-raise. So, if a loose player open-raises on the button and you come over the top they will need a hand to call. If you fall to 10 Big Blinds you can no longer make this play as your chances of being called are close to 100%. Using the same situation described above:

• The Button Raises to 2,500, and you move all-in for 15,000 in the SB. In this case the Button has to call 12,500 to win 19,500 (about 1.5 to 1).
• The Button raise to 2,500, and you move all-in for 10,000 in the SB. In this case the Button has to call 7,500 to win 14,500 (giving him about 2 to 1 on his call).