Why Every Poker Superstar Needed a Little Luck at Some Point

There is a saying in poker that, “Everything evens out”. When you take a long-term approach to the game you realize that for every instance where pocket deuces crack your pocket aces there will be four other times they don’t. Any good player will tell you that this is the proper way to look at poker.

However, there is a dark side to the long-term approach, and it rears its ugly head most often in tournament poker: The problem is, certain scenarios -the big ones-do not happen enough to hit the long-term, and this is where luck comes into play.

For instance suppose you are playing in a $10,000 buy-in tournament, and just reached the final two tables, where 1^st place pays $2 million and 18^th place pays $35,000. What if you are in 2^nd place in chips and get your aces cracked by the chip leader? Will this scenario ever present itself enough in your poker career to “even out”? Of course not!

Now you might say that is an extremely over-the-top example (which it is), but it’s the type of scenario that is often the difference between a poker superstar and an also-ran. Think back to the 2003 WSOP; nearing the final table Chris Moneymaker gets it all-in with 88 -on the flop no less-against Humberto Brenes’ pocket Aces. We all know Chris hits his eight and goes on to win the tournament, but what if he doesn’t hit that eight? Chances are Moneymaker walks with a nice little payday, and Brenes likely finds his way to the final table.

Now, anyone who thinks these two players will be placed in this scenario enough times for the luck of the draw to ‘even out’ is crazy. If Moneymaker loses that hand to Brenes that could very well have been the only major tournament he ever played in!

Don’t just assume that those superstars you see winning millions are the best in the world, chances are there are just as many people playing the daily tournaments at the casinos that were a single hand away from switching places with the superstar. These players may only ever receive that one chance, while others may get five or six -and miss them all, hit one, or hit all of them-when you are dealing with a small sample size virtually anything can happen.

One final point on how wonky short-term results can be: After hearing of the Martingale Roulette system -that’s the system where you pick red or black and if you lose just keep doubling your bet, since your color must come out eventually– a friend of mine decided to ask roulette croupier how many times he has seen a single color appear in a row? His answer came out almost immediately, “One night red came up 37 times in-a-row”.