Your Profits in Poker Come From Your Opponent’s Mistakes

The following line –coined by noted poker author Lou Krieger– is a microcosm of how to be successful in poker. The axiom goes as follows:”Most of the money you’ll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents.” And it’s extremely important you understand precisely what this means.

You must realize that poker is a battle of mistakes; the player making the fewest, and least costly mistakes, is the player who will be taking home the money at the end of the night. If you play in a game where your opponents commit more mistakes than you, you will come out on top, regardless of your skill level. Basically, to win in poker all you have to do is look for players that are worse than you!

This holds true for any poker game, regardless of who happens to be sitting at the table: If the five best players in the world are sitting at a particular table, and the 6^th best player pulls up a chair, guess who is going to be the fish in the game?

This is why the best play in poker is often the most straightforward play. When you try to get “cute” and make an unorthodox move it usually ends up biting you in the ass, for two different reasons:

First off, always remember you are trying to pick on bad players, and “Fancy Plays” go right over their heads. This is where players fall into the trap of Fancy Play Syndrome, a term created by Mike Caro to describe someone who uses advanced plays too often. Fancy Play Syndrome is when you are trying to “show-off” your poker skills to lesser opponents and in doing so you become easier to exploit by good players, and usually miss bets from bad players.

When I say your fancy play misses bets what I am saying is that the fancy play you are attempting has less EV than the straightforward play: Such as attempting a check-raise against an extremely loose/passive opponent.

The reason for this is that you are attempt to manipulate your opponent into making a mistake; but if your opponent is prone to making mistakes on their own there really is no legitimate reason to try to deceive them in the first place.

Secondly, here is the problem with doing something unorthodox: Suppose you decide to limp/re-raise with Aces from Under-The-Gun, which is a not an uncommon move for players trying to “mix-up their play”. However if you make this play, you will not only have to limp with other hands from UTG, but you will also have to limp/re-raise with other hands from UTG! Basically, by trying to extract a couple extra small bets you are broadcasting exactly what you are holding when you make a certain play. So, unless you start playing so unorthodox that no one knows what the hell you are doing, including yourself, your ‘fancy play’ is actually working against your long-term goals!

Think of it in these terms, in order to perpetrate this balancing act you will find yourself limping in with 55, or 89s, limp/re-raising with hands like AJs or 99, in addition to the normal randomization you have included in your game. By the time all is said and done, you will be one of those players that other players are exploiting. To pull off a move like limp/re-raising with Aces you need to be viewed as a player who would limp/re-raise with a slew of other holdings, otherwise you have just killed your action.

The better strategy is to simply randomize the hands you play, and not the action with which you enter pots. Here is an example of a player who is completely unreadable from UTG even though he never limps-in:

Play-range = AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/AK/AQ/AJs/KQs

Randomization = Any red pocket pair 22-88 and any Suited Connector of Spades 56s-QJs

This player will still be seen as an extremely tight player, but will also play enough lower ranking hands to keep his opponents honest on small or mid-sized flops.

So, before you start mixing in limp/re-raises and other unorthodox plays, remember this: There are easier, and better, ways to mix-up your play. In fact, the best way to mix-up your play is to always do the exact same thing!

There is very little reason to try to “outplay” your opponents in poker, when they will most likely be making numerous mistakes with no prodding needed from you. Your deception is completely unnecessary and simply leads to more mistakes that will be made by you!