5 WSOP predictions sure to go wrong

#1 - The chances of a big name pro at the final table of the main event - My prediction 50%.

When I say big name I’m not talking about Nenad Medic or Chino Rheem (no offense guys), I’m talking about one of the true faces of the industry, such as Phil Ivey, Phil Hellmuth, Daniel, Doyle, Gus Hansen, or a former Champion. The last big name pro was Mike Matusow in 2005 (and it can be argued he wasn’t a big name until he final tabled the Main Event), the following year Allen Cunningham made the final table. I’ll give a big name pro a 1% chance to actually win the main event.

#2 - The chance of a woman winning a bracelet in an open event - My prediction 100%.

There are just too many women playing poker at a high level for this not too happen. Don’t believe me? Five years ago a woman winning an open event would have made huge headlines in the poker community: If it happens this year it will just be a byline in the story. It was never a matter of skill, it was always a matter of numbers; women were always underrepresented in poker, but that is starting to change.

#3 - The chance of the main event breaking 6,000 entrants - My prediction 25%.

After the huge turnout in 2006 - 8,773 entrants, 2007 and 2008 saw a marked decline in attendance, 6,358 and 6,844 entrants respectively. With the current state of the economy (Vegas itself has seen a major drop in tourism) and the concerns over H1N1 Swine Flu, it’s not a long-shot to assume many players will not be making the trip.

#4 - The chance the $40k anniversary tournament has 250 entrants - My prediction 0%.

I loved the addition of the $50k H.O.R.S.E. Event: This event -honoring the 40^th year of the WSOP- just doesn’t make much sense to me. The Main Event will still trump the $40k event as the most prestigious No Limit tournament, and the H.O.R.S.E. Event is still for the heavyweights. So, where does this fit in? Tagging the Tournament of Champions Event as the honorific event would have been a better opportunity to celebrate the anniversary.

#5 - The chance Scotty Ngyuen makes good on his promise to earn $2,000,000 - My prediction 1%.

This is a tough one for Scotty, in order to earn $2million he’ll have to finish in the top 6 in the Main Event, or win the $40k NLHE or $50k H.O.R.S.E. event, and final table another event! Even winning two events probably won’t get him to $2million.

So there you have it, my attempt at handicapping 5 events that could take place at this year’s WSOP.